UK Edition
The Premier League title race has ceased to be solely about ability. Now it is primarily about the psychology of Manchester City and Liverpool.
One club is buzzing preparing for a Champions League semi-final, trying to feed off their winning momentum. The other is fighting against the prospect of a demoralising European setback having domestic repercussions.
Assessing the mood of the two clubs in midweek, you would not believe it is City that has already won one trophy this year, reached the final of another competition and remain favourites to win the Premier League.
Liverpool crave their first trophy of the Jurgen Klopp era yet this week feels particularly crucial for Pep Guardiola.
Last week, Liverpool beat Chelsea and there were triumphant scenes inside Anfield. Five years ago, they ended a fixture against the same opponents in exactly the same position - needing City to lose or draw one of their remaining few games – yet the picture was one of desolation.
The difference comes from the impetus of results and belief that by maintaining an extraordinary winning run the pressure will tell and the prize will come. City have been fighting against this idea of destiny being in Liverpool’s favour for months and are yet to offer any hint they will drop another point.
Not in the Premier League, at least. Europe has given the title race a sub-plot. The sight of Guardiola sinking to his knees after VAR ruled out Raheem Sterling’s injury time ‘goal’ against Spurs might become the lingering image of this season. The Champions League means to so much to Guardiola and his players. He knows his side had the talent to win it this year, as they did last season.
No matter what was said publicly, the quadruple and its historic significance was a realistic ambition. The Champions League is the competition he was brought to City to win, the owners hiring him to lead the club where Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrino could not. Guardiola has been unable to do so and it will hurt.
What makes it worse is the challenge was overcoming Barcelona and Real Madrid, but in the last three seasons teams they expected to beat - Monaco, Liverpool and Spurs - knocked them out.
City face Tottenham Hotspur again on Saturday afternoon, an immediate and unwanted reminder of their harrowing experience in what was probably the most dramatic football match I ever seen in England.
There are those who believe City’s disappointment will inspire them to the title. That may prove the case as they protect their advantage, but the quarter-final loss was a hindrance, not a help. There was no blessing in disguise at the Etihad on Wednesday night. Guardiola’s reaction said it all. History was beckoning for his City team, denied them in the cruellest circumstances.
That will inevitably have taken its toll when the players reported to training on Thursday, demanding Guardiola and his backroom staff to be at their most inspirational to get into the minds of his players and remind them what they have achieved and what is still at stake. If they are able to shrug off their despair to collect maximum points from their remaining five Premier League fixtures it will be even more impressive than dealing with whatever congestion a double-legged semi-final brought.
I do not subscribe to the theory going out of the Champions League has made City’s task more straightforward, especially because of the emotionally draining manner of the exit. Facing Ajax would have made no difference to performance levels against Leicester City and Brighton, the fixtures that would have been most impacted by the additional workload. Those games would have made Ajax a tougher proposition, not the league opponents.
My feeling throughout the title run-in is it is City’s next three games before the semi-finals kick-off – Spurs, Manchester United and Burnley – which will determine if they retain their championship.
Similarly, Liverpool’s success has brought dilemmas for Klopp that he would have welcomed when this season began, but which now present him with unenviable decisions. Sunday’s trip to Cardiff has assumed the status of Liverpool’s biggest league game of the season because a victory can ensure City must win at Old Trafford.
Liverpool have already suffered one setback. When Uefa decided Liverpool will play their first leg against Barcelona on Wednesday, May 1, this made life more difficult for Klopp. Now his side must play Barcelona twice and travel to Newcastle in the space of six days.
What does a Liverpool manager do in that situation? The question of which tournament to prioritise has been shrugged off until now, Klopp deflecting the question by explaining the ‘next game’ is most important.
Can he really expect all his front three to perform at their maximum in the Nou Camp and then again three days later at St James’ Park? If not, which game will he choose to rest one of them? The next seven days will make it clearer what direction he should take.
If City drop points in their next two games and Liverpool beat Cardiff and Huddersfield, I would argue the trip to Newcastle is more important than Barcelona. Inconceivable as it sounds, I would not criticise Klopp if he left out one his front three in the first leg to ensure they are ready in the north-east. That would be a brave call but the Premier League is everything to Liverpool fans, the Champions League a brilliant opportunity to make the season memorable even if the title eludes them.
If, however, City beat Spurs, United and Burnley, Klopp must assume the Champions League offers the most likely route to glory.
This all ensures the most exciting conclusion to a title race since Sergio Aguero’s winning goal in injury time against QPR in 2012. These campaigns come along occasionally, such as when Manchester United went head-to-head with Arsenal when Arsene Wenger was at his peak, Blackburn Rovers squeezing across the line in 1995 and Michael Thomas winning the title with the last kick of the 1989 season.
They are so infrequent we cherish them more, and yet we have still not had a moment in the Premier League campaign to rival the drama at the Etihad in midweek.
Such is the quality of the teams, the stress they are putting each under to maintain their highest level every week, you cannot avoid the feeling we are heading towards another unforgettable climax – a truly decisive big moment.
Even more encouraging, there is no reason to believe the unprecedented point collecting by City and Liverpool will never be repeated. City have won 183 points from their last 33 Premier League games. It is an unreal level of consistency.
We are blessed to be observing these coaches at work, Mauricio Pochettino worthy of similar accolades. Guardiola will be remembered as one of the greatest managers of all time for the 25 trophies he has already won.
But there is not a single Liverpool supporter who would swap him for Klopp, the perfect man for Anfield as the modern embodiment of what everyone on The Kop craves from their coach: pure emotion, an engaging personality that connects with the working class fanbase, always on the attack.
The more City and Liverpool have to gain in the next few weeks, the more they become aware of how much they might lose. We have no need to keep saying and writing how good they are. This is the ultimate test of mental endurance.
This title race is now all about psychology - and the momentum is with Liverpool