Jones Knows: Leeds to win to nil, BTTS in Derby vs Luton, Yerry Mina to score first
Saturday 5 October 2019 07:57, UK
Having a punt this weekend on the football? What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
It's four o'clock in the morning.
I'm cocooned in my bed, three hours into a sleep following a night working on our Monday Night Football coverage.
I should be dreaming of Jones Knows being fed grapes, but I'm very much awake. I've had the urge to check Burnley's overall record at defending set-pieces and crosses this season. Everton play Burnley this weekend and the thought of Yerry Mina constantly attacking every high ball in the opposition penalty area fills my head.
Hang on, didn't he score against Burnley last season? I crank open the laptop, trying not to wake Mrs Jones Knows. It transpires he did score. Boom. Early morning form study is underrated.
Granted, there's probably a time and a place for checking such juicy betting angles - and this problem isn't one of them as Mrs Jones Knows informs me.
"Are you ill?" she barks as my quiet as a mouse routine was in fact of elephant proportions.
Perhaps I am. I do have a fever for football betting, especially after more success last weekend with the 3/1 Jones Knows double doing the business.
I try to explain to her the philosophy of the 'harder you work, the better the results' but all I receive is a pillow to the face and the silent treatment in the morning.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: -7 pts.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows...
I'm such a sucker for a goal-scoring centre-back. They seduce me in with their meaty heads and big price make-up.
And, ultimately, break my heart. Unless their name is Shane Duffy that is. One of my greatest punting days was when the god among men rose above the Denmark back four to head home the first goal in a World Cup play-off at 33/1. The 'Duffman' has a place in my heart. There's room for another rugged defender with an eye for goal in there though.
I'm winking at you, Yerry.
The big Colombian, who scored against England in the World Cup last-16 encounter, is a massive threat in the opposition box for a team that has created more chances from set-pieces than any other in the Premier League (16) - Gylfi Sigurdsson is one of the best around from dead-ball situations and it makes Everton a big threat.
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As Burnley know well from last year's fixture, Mina has only ever scored once in Everton colours. But it's only a matter of time before he opens his account for this season. Six headed efforts on goal proves that, with three of those coming last weekend against Manchester City. He looked like a man possessed in terms of his desire to attack balls against the champions, bulldozing opposition defenders out of the way and registering three efforts on goal, but a mixture of solid goalkeeping from Ederson and some slack finishing from the man himself hindered his goalscoring exploits.
This just might be his weekend. We're getting on at here at 33/1 and that doesn't reflect the true probability of the defender netting the opening goal at Turf Moor.
"This season is one of the most competitive races for the Championship title in living memory," a highly-respected EFL pundit claimed this week.
No, it isn't. It really isn't. One look at the markets will tell you that.
Leeds United are almost Evens to win the division and are 4/11 to win promotion. Now, bookmakers are the enemy and we should pummel them at every opportunity but they provide a great guide on true abilities of teams. Leeds, despite a few smash-and-grab defeats, are clearly the most likely side to end up as table-toppers and the markets fully replicate that.
The 1-0 victory over a talented West Brom side on Tuesday only further enhanced those claims. The level of opposition drops significantly this weekend with a visit to Millwall, who judging by the reaction on social media could be going through a bit of a grieving process on Saturday after their boss Neil Harris walked away on Thursday.
I'm confident Leeds' aggressive, possession-focused style will be able to swat away any early Millwall momentum and from there on in, the visitors' quality will take over.
Creating chances and scoring goals proved to be Millwall's Achilles heel under Harris. His team were excellently organised but created just 18 chances from open play at home this season under his watch - the second-lowest in the division. It's also now 18 games since Millwall scored more than once in a Sky Bet Championship fixture.
A change in the dugout is probably best for all concerned in the long-term. However, we're all about the here and now and a Leeds win to nil this weekend (13/8) looks a smart play.
Double Leeds up with both teams to score kings Derby and Luton, who meet at Pride Park. In their 20 fixtures this season, 16 of those have seen both teams find the net. Having watched both teams play, this statistic isn't a surprise. Derby play with good intensity going forward but lack the right defensive balance, as shown by nearly throwing away a 2-0 lead against mediocre Birmingham last weekend.
Luton, meanwhile, are yet to keep a clean sheet this season as tactically their focus obviously revolves around what they do with the ball. The result of that though makes them a dangerous outfit in the attacking third but very vulnerable going the other way. Their fixtures have produced the most goals of any other team in the league (33). That trend should continue.
Yes. You can. It's winnable. Four players have won the jackpot this season already from just 12 rounds of Super 6. And remember, it's free to play!
Andros Townsend struck in the 92nd minute to hand Crystal Palace three points on Saturday, and, more importantly, Stephen Lloyd £250,000. So, the Super 6 jackpot has gone again - can you follow suit?
